IRAN – US Nuclear
Deal
Iran-US Deal: Various Names
E3+3
|
E3 =
France, Germany, UK
Other
3 = China, Russia, USA
|
UNSC
P5+1
|
Permanent
5 countries in UN + Germany
|
Lausanne
Agreement
|
Because
signed in the city of Lausanne in Switzerland
|
All of them one and same, meant to control
Iran’s nuke program for next 10-15 years, so they can’t produce nuclear bomb.
Salient features of
the deal:
v
Iran
can run nuke facilities for civilian / peaceful purpose only.
v
IAEA
to have full inspection powers.
v
Spent
fuel won’t be reprocessed, it’ll be exported.
v
Overall
no. of centrifuges to be reduced.
v
Only
1 enrichment facility at Natanz.
v
Fordow
facility will be turned into a research centre.
v
Arak’s
heavy water reactor will be modified so it can’t produce plutonium.
Why Iran & West Agreed?
Iran Agreed because
|
West Agreed because
|
UNSC,
EU, USA sanctions will be lifted. Iran can freely trade in international
market, borrow loans from IMF, World Bank etc…
|
Irani
influence increased in this region after US existed from Afghanistan and
Iraq. So Irani help necessary to prevent spread of ISIS and Huthi rebels
|
Crude
Oil prices declined, and given the economic sanction, Iran has not much to
export. If sanction not lifted, the resultant economic crisis may have led to
another Arab Spring like revolution
|
After
stunxet cyber-attack on Iran’s nuke facilities, Iranis updated their
anti-virus software. So now it is difficult to hack again. And also none
wants to launch full-fledged military attack except Israel
|
Danger
of aerial attack from Israel. This ‘nuke peace deal’ means USA will prevent
Israel from any military adventure for the time being
|
If
no deal happened then within 3 months, Iran would have sufficient enriched
uranium to produce a bomb
|
India's interest in E3+3 deal:
ä
Iran
can help India counter terror groups Jundullah, LeT, Haqqani, Al-Qaeda,
Taliban, ISI and Pakistan Army.
ä
India
can easily develop Iran’s Chabahar port and gain land route entry to
Afghanistan, to counter Chinese influence from Lianyungang port and Silk Road /
belt initiative.
ä
We
can develop Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, and International North-South Transport
Corridor (INSTC) to connect with CIS, Europe and Russia. It cut down time and
cost in shipping from Mumbai to Astrakhan, Russia. INSTC was planned in 2000;
it has Iran, India, Russia + 9 other countries.
ä
If
INSTC is done, we can get raw material and export finished goods to CIS and via
CIS to EU. (Foreign Trade policy 2015 wants this).
ä
Iran
can provide steady oil and gas supply to India, because Iran has world’s 4th
largest oil and 2nd largest natural gas reserves.
ä
Indian
fertilizer companies can invest in Iran’s gas based plants. Remember Natural
gas to CH3 to NH3 to Urea connection.
ä
Defence
ties in long term; but with Challenges. Because if we cozy up too much with
Iran then Saudi, Israel and USA won’t like it. Not ONE BIT. Therefore, India
will have to balance 3 legged three-legged stool — with different sized legs.
Chinese Interests:
ü
They
always supported Iran during sanction years, so now time to reap rewards by
signing contracts e.g. new oil line from Gwadar Port (Pakistan) to Iran.
ü
China
wants Iran to join silk belt/road initiative and AIIB.
ü
Even
Pakistan interested to align with Iran instead of Saudi, therefore Pakistan
Parliament recently declined to give military support to Saudi’s campaign in
Yemen to fight against Huthi rebels. Because Iran is supporting Huthis rebels.
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