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Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

Jun 29, 2016

[CA] Brexit

Brexit
BREXIT – Abbreviation of “British Exit” refers to the possibility of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union


People of Britain in a historic referendum voted in favour of leaving European Union (EU). The referendum ‘to leave’ or ‘to be a member’ of EU saw 51.9% votes in favour compared to 48.1% in against.  Referendum turnout was higher than at 2015 general election. Northern Ireland, London and Scotland voted strongly to stay back with the EU while the Wales and the English shires backed Britain exit (Brexit) from the EU.


Why the people voted for Brexit?
According to Brexit campaigners, concerns about the costs of continued EU membership far outweigh any worries about leaving.


Impact of Brexit
·       Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation from his position. (He stated that new Prime Minister to carry out discussions with the EU and invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Party)
·       The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 as the markets reacted to the results. It fell by 3% within moments of the first result showing a strong result for Leave in Sunderland and fell as much as 6.5% against the euro.
·       The departure of the bloc's second biggest economy would weaken Europe's unity and stability which is already grappling with the Greek financial crisis and a massive influx of refugees.
·       It triggered fall in major markets like Japan’s Nikkei fell by 7.5% whereas Singapore’s Strait Times fell by 2.5%. Even the stock markets of China, Taiwan and South Korea registered a fall between 2-4%.
·       Internationally, prices of oil tumbled but the prices of gold rose sharply.
·       According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, Global markets lost $2.08 trillion
·       President Obama sought to encourage British citizens that the U.S. would not abandon the nations’ strong and historic partnership
·       Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the U.K.’s sovereign debt rating from stable to negative.
·       More than 400,000 Britain people have signed a petition to exit from the EU

Impact on India
·       The benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex index fell as much as 4.04 percent or 1090.9 points in early trade to a day’s low of 25,911.33 points.
·       The Indian rupee fell to 68.14 against the dollar, its lowest level since February 2016, later it crawled to 67.79.
Would be Impacts include
·       Productivity and GDP per person of the UK would be lower as the costs would substantially outweigh any potential benefit of leaving the EU.
·       It may lead to disintegration of United Kingdom as an entity because Scotland may again ask for a referendum to be a part of EU as it had a referendum on 19 September 2014.
·       Other nations of the 28 nation bloc, now 27 with exit of Britain, may call for a referendum giving rise to protectionism and ultra-nationalism which is getting hardened across the world.
·       IMF said in an April report that "a U.K. exit from Europe's single market would also likely disrupt and reduce mutual trade and financial flows, curtailing key benefits from economic cooperation and integration, such as those resulting from economies of scale and efficient specialization.
It would likely result in a massive rebalancing of currencies. Investors would likely dive out of the British pound and into cash that's perceived as safe — the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, the U.S. dollar. The euro could also see some weakening if investors are worried about the fate of the EU.

May 13, 2015

[CA] Iran - US deal

IRAN – US Nuclear Deal
 Iran-US Deal: Various Names

E3+3
E3 = France, Germany, UK
Other 3 = China, Russia, USA
UNSC P5+1
Permanent 5 countries in UN + Germany
Lausanne Agreement
Because signed in the city of Lausanne in Switzerland

All of them one and same, meant to control Iran’s nuke program for next 10-15 years, so they can’t produce nuclear bomb.

Salient features of the deal:

v Iran can run nuke facilities for civilian / peaceful purpose only.
v IAEA to have full inspection powers.
v Spent fuel won’t be reprocessed, it’ll be exported.
v Overall no. of centrifuges to be reduced.
v Only 1 enrichment facility at Natanz.
v Fordow facility will be turned into a research centre.
v Arak’s heavy water reactor will be modified so it can’t produce plutonium.

Why Iran & West Agreed?

Iran Agreed because
West Agreed because
UNSC, EU, USA sanctions will be lifted. Iran can freely trade in international market, borrow loans from IMF, World Bank etc…
Irani influence increased in this region after US existed from Afghanistan and Iraq. So Irani help necessary to prevent spread of ISIS and Huthi rebels
Crude Oil prices declined, and given the economic sanction, Iran has not much to export. If sanction not lifted, the resultant economic crisis may have led to another Arab Spring like revolution
After stunxet cyber-attack on Iran’s nuke facilities, Iranis updated their anti-virus software. So now it is difficult to hack again. And also none wants to launch full-fledged military attack except Israel
Danger of aerial attack from Israel. This ‘nuke peace deal’ means USA will prevent Israel from any military adventure for the time being
If no deal happened then within 3 months, Iran would have sufficient enriched uranium to produce a bomb


India's interest in E3+3 deal:



ä  Iran can help India counter terror groups Jundullah, LeT, Haqqani, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, ISI and Pakistan Army.
ä  India can easily develop Iran’s Chabahar port and gain land route entry to Afghanistan, to counter Chinese influence from Lianyungang port and Silk Road / belt initiative.
ä  We can develop Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, and International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to connect with CIS, Europe and Russia. It cut down time and cost in shipping from Mumbai to Astrakhan, Russia. INSTC was planned in 2000; it has Iran, India, Russia + 9 other countries.
ä  If INSTC is done, we can get raw material and export finished goods to CIS and via CIS to EU. (Foreign Trade policy 2015 wants this).
ä  Iran can provide steady oil and gas supply to India, because Iran has world’s 4th largest oil and 2nd largest natural gas reserves.
ä  Indian fertilizer companies can invest in Iran’s gas based plants. Remember Natural gas to CH3 to NH3 to Urea connection.
ä  Defence ties in long term; but with Challenges. Because if we cozy up too much with Iran then Saudi, Israel and USA won’t like it. Not ONE BIT. Therefore, India will have to balance 3 legged three-legged stool — with different sized legs.

Chinese Interests:
ü  They always supported Iran during sanction years, so now time to reap rewards by signing contracts e.g. new oil line from Gwadar Port (Pakistan) to Iran.
ü  China wants Iran to join silk belt/road initiative and AIIB.
ü  Even Pakistan interested to align with Iran instead of Saudi, therefore Pakistan Parliament recently declined to give military support to Saudi’s campaign in Yemen to fight against Huthi rebels. Because Iran is supporting Huthis rebels.

Oct 20, 2014

[CA/Econ] US downgrades India’s aviation

Current Affairs
US downgrades India’s aviation safety rating

·        US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) - They reduced India’s safety rating from Category #1 to Category #2; meaning we’re as bogus as Ghana and Bangladesh. [Hell, even Pakistani Airlines are safer than India!]
·        Main reasons cited
Ø     India doesn’t have sufficient number of Flight operation inspectors.
Ø     India’s aviation regulator Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) does not meet the safety standards set by ICAO.
Ø     (conspiracy theory) America intentionally downgraded the safety rating to “teach” us a lesson for the Devyani Khobragade controversy.
·        Consequences:
Ø     When Indian flights go to USA, their officers will do more safety checking = more time will be wasted, inconvenience to Desi passengers.
Ø     Jet airways’ share prices fell down.
Ø     Domino effect: Singapore’s aviation authority also started inspecting Indian aircrafts. The aviation regulators of EU, Japan, UAE may also reduce our rating – leading to more time waste and inconvenience to passengers.
·        New updation
v     India’s DGCA [Directorate-General of Civil Aviation] says we’ve addressed those deficiencies.
v     He is hopeful that in a month or two, we should move back from Category II to Category I


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